In the first two months of 2025, orders for new bulk carriers dropped by a staggering 92% compared to the same period last year, hitting their lowest point in at least three decades. January saw minimal activity, and not a single new vessel was ordered in February. According to BIMCO, this steep decline is likely due to weak freight rates, high prices for new ships, extended delivery times, and general market uncertainty.
Bulk carrier contracting began slowing down in the second half of 2024. During this period, second-hand vessel prices (for five-year-old ships) fell by 12% in response to softening freight rates. In contrast, new-build prices barely budged—declining just 1%.
A surge in newbuild orders in other shipping segments—particularly container ships and tankers—has kept newbuild prices high, as all sectors compete for limited shipyard capacity. This competition has also led to longer delivery times: smaller bulk carriers ordered today are not expected to be delivered before 2027, while larger vessels may not be handed over until 2028.
Mid-term market prospects for bulk carriers remain uncertain. Demand forecasts for iron ore and coal are weak, and intensifying global trade tensions could place further pressure on these commodities.
Currently, the orderbook for bulk carriers stands at around 10% of the global fleet—enough to replace aging vessels in a stable market. The bulk carrier fleet is also younger on average compared to container ships and tankers, and fewer ships are approaching typical recycling age. Still, the fleet is gradually aging, with the average vessel now nearly 13 years old.
The panamax segment makes up the largest share of the orderbook, accounting for 34% of total capacity and 14% relative to the existing fleet. Although most of the few orders placed so far this year were panamaxes, contracting in this segment is down 83% year-over-year. Given the sharp drop in panamax freight rates over the past eight months, this downward trend may persist in the short term.
The capesize segment comprises 29% of the current orderbook, but only 8% relative to the fleet—making it the segment with the lowest orderbook-to-fleet ratio. Capesize contracting saw stronger momentum in 2024, buoyed by a firmer market. However, no large vessel orders have been placed so far in 2025.
Looking ahead, fleet renewal and decarbonization are expected to be the main drivers of new orders, as demand growth is projected to remain subdued. Older bulk carriers are already losing competitiveness due to environmental regulations that restrict their sailing speeds. As these regulations tighten in the coming years, there may be increased incentives to recycle aging vessels.