The number of active shipyards worldwide has increased by 17.7% in the last two years, rising from 153 in June 2022 to 180 recorded in June 2024, according to data from the Greek broker Xclusiv Shipbrokers. China is the main driver of this growth.
This activation comes at a time when the rising demand for new shipbuilding is causing a significant shortage of space in shipyards and an increase in new shipbuilding costs not seen «in nearly a generation,» according to the specialized portal splash247.com. Currently, delivery dates for container ships are being negotiated for 2029 and for LNG carriers for 2030.
“The continued and strong contracting activity and the limited availability of space in the shipyards are pushing shipbuilding prices to historic highs,” noted Danish Ship Finance in a report published last May.
According to BIMCO, the order book in shipyards worldwide currently stands at over 133 million compensated gross tonnage (CGT), an increase of 56 million from the most recent low recorded at the end of 2020. The LNG carrier and container ship sectors account for 35% and 30%, respectively, of this increase.
In the first five months of 2024, 78 LNG carriers were ordered, representing an increase of 129% compared to the same period last year, which saw 34 orders, according to a recent analysis by VesselsValue.
Meanwhile, orders for container ships, which declined in the second half of last year due to falling freight rates, have rebounded in 2024 with the onset of the Red Sea crisis. So far this year, 64 container ships with a total capacity of 543,500 TEU have been ordered, according to the most recent data from analyst Alphaliner.
After a decade of a marked downward trend, shipyard production has begun to increase in recent years. According to Clarksons Research, 10.1 million CGT were delivered in the first quarter, the highest in the past seven years. Clarksons forecasts a 15% increase in ship deliveries for the entire year of 2024, reaching 40.6 million CGT.
Analysts at Danish Ship Finance are optimistic about the sector’s outlook, but only in the short term, as shipyard occupancy rates worldwide are expected to peak in 2024 before declining in the following two years.
It is worth noting that in the most recent edition of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Review of Maritime Transport, published in September 2023, shipyards are urged to expand rapidly to contribute to the green transition of maritime transport.
“Shipyard capacity is currently facing constraints. Tanker and bulk carrier owners foresee long waiting times and high construction prices. Increasing shipbuilding capacity is crucial to ensure that maritime transport meets global demand and its sustainability goals,” the report states.