Oil Exports from the Persian Gulf Recover: Legal Challenges for International Shipping Amid Continuing Geopolitical Risks
Crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to more than 75% of pre-conflict levels, according to the International Energy Agency. However, continuing threats to commercial vessels and energy infrastructure highlight the legal and operational challenges facing shipowners, charterers, insurers and other participants in international maritime trade.
San Simón & Duch | International Maritime Law | November 2026
A Recovery in Oil Trade Does Not Necessarily Mean a Return to Maritime Stability
Maritime oil transportation in the Persian Gulf is showing significant signs of recovery following the severe disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the increase in export volumes continues to coexist with substantial operational, commercial and legal uncertainty.
According to September 2026 figures published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and reported by the Spanish Shipowners’ Association (ANAVE), crude oil exports from Persian Gulf countries increased by 4.4 million barrels per day, reaching 13.9 million barrels per day.
This represents more than 75% of pre-conflict export volumes and illustrates the ability of oil producers, shipping companies and logistics operators to adapt to restrictions affecting one of the world’s most strategically important energy-producing regions.
However, the IEA has also highlighted the fragility of this recovery, particularly in light of continuing attacks against tankers and energy infrastructure.
For the international shipping industry, the fundamental question is no longer simply how much oil can be exported, but under what conditions of safety, contractual responsibility and insurance protection those shipments can take place.
From an international maritime law perspective, these developments reinforce the importance of contractual mechanisms designed to allocate risks between shipowners, charterers, cargo interests, insurers and other parties involved in maritime transportation.
The Strait of Hormuz: Recovering Traffic Amid Persistent Security Concerns
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically significant maritime chokepoints in international energy trade.
Its importance derives not only from the substantial volumes of hydrocarbons transported through its waters, but also from the geographical and operational limitations affecting alternative transportation routes.
During September 2026, seaborne oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfer operations conducted in the Gulf of Oman, increased by 3.7 million barrels per day to approximately 10.9 million barrels per day.
At the same time, the recovery of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline enabled additional volumes to be exported through routes bypassing the Strait, with alternative export flows reaching approximately 5.6 million barrels per day.
These developments reflect the restructuring of international energy supply chains and the increasing reliance on alternative logistical arrangements to reduce exposure to high-risk maritime areas.
Nevertheless, recovering traffic volumes do not eliminate the dangers associated with navigation through waters affected by armed conflict, threats against commercial shipping or extraordinary security restrictions.
Such circumstances may directly affect voyage planning, operating costs, insurance arrangements and the performance of contractual obligations.
Safe Navigation as a Legal and Operational Responsibility
For shipowners and maritime operators, assessing the risks associated with a particular trading route extends beyond commercial considerations.
The duty to exercise appropriate care in vessel operations, the protection of seafarers and compliance with applicable international maritime safety obligations must all be considered when planning voyages through areas exposed to exceptional threats.
In this context, the obligations arising under international maritime safety instruments, established risk-management procedures and guidance issued by competent authorities become particularly relevant.
The existence of an armed conflict does not automatically render navigation through a particular area unlawful or contractually impossible.
However, it may materially alter the conditions under which a voyage can be undertaken safely, insured adequately and performed consistently with the operator’s legal and contractual obligations.
Charterparties and War Risks: A Central Issue for Shipowners and Charterers
One of the most significant legal challenges arising from the situation in the Persian Gulf concerns the interpretation and application of charterparty agreements.
Maritime contracts commonly establish the conditions under which a vessel must proceed to nominated ports, comply with commercial employment instructions or undertake particular loading and discharge operations.
Where performance requires navigation through areas affected by armed conflict or threats against commercial vessels, disputes may arise concerning the allocation of risks and the lawfulness of particular operational decisions.
War Risks Clauses
War risks clauses are essential contractual instruments for regulating the consequences of armed conflict, hostilities and other events falling within their agreed scope.
Depending on the contractual form and the wording of the relevant provisions, such clauses may address:
- The circumstances in which owners or masters may refuse employment orders exposing a vessel to specified risks.
- The conditions governing deviations, alternative routes or substitute ports.
- Responsibility for additional war risks insurance premiums.
- The allocation of costs arising from delays, waiting periods or operational changes.
- Notification and cooperation obligations between owners and charterers.
The application of these provisions requires careful consideration of the individual circumstances.
The general existence of an armed conflict will not necessarily be sufficient to trigger a particular contractual right.
The wording of the clause, the nature and proximity of the relevant threat, the circumstances of the voyage and the governing law must all be examined.
Route Deviations, Delays and Additional Costs
Changes to established shipping routes designed to avoid high-risk areas may substantially increase voyage duration, fuel consumption and operating expenditure.
From a contractual perspective, such changes can raise questions concerning the legitimacy of deviations, compliance with charterers’ employment instructions and responsibility for extraordinary expenses.
Under time charterparties, the allocation of financial consequences may depend on employment provisions, war risks clauses and off-hire arrangements.
Under voyage charterparties, particular attention may need to be given to safe-port obligations, laytime, demurrage and the contractual requirements governing performance of the agreed voyage.
Clear contractual drafting and the preservation of contemporaneous evidence supporting operational decisions may prove decisive in preventing disputes and determining liability.
Marine Insurance: Distinguishing Ordinary Maritime Risks from War Risks
The evolving conflict in the Middle East also raises important questions for the international marine insurance market.
Losses arising from attacks against commercial vessels, military operations and hostile acts may be subject to specific insurance arrangements, exclusions or additional conditions that must be considered separately from ordinary marine insurance protection.
Hull and Machinery Insurance
Hull and Machinery (H&M) policies provide cover against specified physical damage and insured maritime risks, subject to their contractual terms.
However, losses attributable to war risks may fall outside ordinary H&M cover and require separate insurance arrangements.
The distinction can become particularly complex where a casualty involves concurrent causes or where uncertainty exists concerning the factual and legal characterisation of the event giving rise to the loss.
War Risks Insurance
War risks policies may provide protection against certain events associated with armed conflict, subject to the applicable exclusions, limits and conditions.
Depending on the circumstances, insurers may require additional premiums, impose specific conditions for navigation through designated areas or exercise contractual rights to amend or cancel cover.
Consequently, before undertaking operations in particularly exposed regions, operators should verify the effective scope of their insurance arrangements, notification requirements and any geographical restrictions.
Protection and Indemnity Insurance
Protection and Indemnity (P&I) Clubs play a central role in providing cover for specified third-party liabilities incurred by shipowners and other insured parties.
Nevertheless, liabilities arising from war-related events may be subject to exclusions, special limits or supplementary insurance mechanisms.
Coordination between H&M, war risks and P&I arrangements becomes particularly important where a single incident affects the vessel, cargo, crew, third parties or the marine environment.
In such circumstances, determining the cause of the casualty and interpreting the applicable insurance provisions may have substantial financial consequences.
Ship-to-Ship Transfers: Contractual, Operational and Insurance Implications
The increased use of ship-to-ship (STS) oil transfers represents another important feature of the reorganisation of energy transportation in the region.
Such operations allow cargo to be transferred between tankers without relying exclusively on conventional port infrastructure, providing additional logistical flexibility when established routes or facilities are disrupted.
However, their execution requires particularly careful planning and risk management.
From a legal perspective, consideration must be given to operational safety, pollution prevention, cargo integrity and the allocation of responsibilities among participating parties.
STS operations may give rise to questions involving:
- Liability for damage between participating vessels.
- Cargo loss, contamination or shortage during transfer.
- Pollution prevention and response obligations.
- The responsibilities of specialist STS service providers.
- Insurance conditions and notification requirements.
- Operational documentation and compliance with applicable regulations.
Depending on the location and nature of the operation, relevant provisions of the MARPOL Convention and requirements imposed by competent coastal or flag States may also apply.
Furthermore, cargo traceability and compliance with applicable international sanctions regimes should form part of the legal and commercial assessment of each operation.
The use of alternative logistical arrangements does not reduce the importance of clearly allocating contractual responsibilities. On the contrary, it may make such allocation even more critical.
Refined Petroleum Products: A Significantly Slower Recovery
While crude oil exports have recovered substantially, refined petroleum products continue to show a considerably weaker performance.
According to the figures reported by ANAVE, exports of clean petroleum products from the Middle East reached approximately 1.9 million barrels per day in September, compared with 4.7 million barrels per day before the conflict.
The recovery therefore remains below 50% of previous levels.
Diesel supplies have been particularly affected by the disruption.
Global diesel exports during September were approximately 700,000 barrels per day below the volumes recorded during the same month of the previous year.
Reduced diesel availability during the second and third quarters of 2026 has contributed to lower international inventories ahead of the seasonal increase in winter demand.
Implications for Maritime Transportation and International Trade
The relative scarcity of certain refined products may influence commercial shipping conditions, cargo availability and operators’ logistical decisions.
From a legal perspective, these developments may become relevant where they affect contractual obligations concerning supply, international sale of goods or maritime transportation.
Disputes may arise in connection with delivery delays, failures to perform, changes in shipping arrangements or extraordinary alterations in the circumstances surrounding contractual performance.
Nevertheless, price fluctuations or supply difficulties do not, in themselves, automatically excuse contractual non-performance.
The potential application of force majeure provisions, hardship clauses or equivalent contractual mechanisms will depend on the specific circumstances, contractual wording and governing law.
The International Dimension of Maritime Disputes
Oil transportation operations frequently involve multiple jurisdictions and overlapping contractual relationships.
A single voyage may involve a vessel registered under one flag, an owner established in another jurisdiction, an international charterer, insurers operating under different legal systems and cargo destined for several markets.
This international structure may give rise to particularly complex disputes when incidents occur in areas affected by armed conflict.
Determining the governing law, the competent court or arbitral tribunal and the mechanisms available for enforcing judgments or awards can be fundamental to the effective protection of commercial interests.
Interim measures, the provision of security and, where legally available, the arrest of vessels may also become relevant.
Effective dispute resolution therefore requires an understanding of both international maritime law instruments and the particular features of the national legal systems potentially involved.
Outlook: Commercial Recovery Remains Exposed to Significant Risks
The recovery of oil exports from the Persian Gulf is an important indication of the resilience and adaptability of international energy markets and maritime supply chains.
However, the available figures do not establish that normal navigational conditions have been restored.
Continuing threats against vessels and infrastructure, the use of alternative transportation routes and the uneven recovery of refined petroleum products demonstrate that significant uncertainty remains.
For the shipping industry, the coming months will require continued assessment of security conditions, contractual obligations and insurance protection.
A recovery in commercial volumes should not be confused with an equivalent reduction in legal and operational exposure.
In an environment characterised by extraordinary risks, contractual prevention, appropriate insurance arrangements and specialist knowledge of international maritime law are essential to protecting commercial interests and managing maritime operations effectively.
San Simón & Duch: Legal Expertise in a Complex International Maritime Environment
Developments in the Persian Gulf illustrate the close relationship between maritime commerce, international security and the legal mechanisms governing the transportation of goods.
Operations conducted under conditions of heightened uncertainty require careful assessment of contractual obligations, liability regimes and the legal protections available to the parties involved.
As a law firm specialising in maritime law, San Simón & Duch remains committed to examining the legal developments affecting international shipping, maritime contracts, marine insurance and dispute resolution.
In a global industry where circumstances can change rapidly, anticipating legal risks and obtaining specialist maritime legal advice are essential to safeguarding commercial interests and ensuring effective risk management.
This article is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. The application of the legal and contractual principles discussed will depend on the particular circumstances of each case.